Odds says Falcons will win NFC South again but record will drop

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will lead the Falcons to a 10-win regular season, according to a Las Vegas sportsbook. (Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com)

The first set of NFL over/under win totals have been released by Sin City and the Falcons are expected to take a slight step back. Kinda, sorta.

The South Point casino in Las Vegas projects the Falcons will win 10 games in the 2017 regular season, which would represent a slight drop from last year’s 11-5 record. Given the apparent difficulty of their schedule — which includes home games against Green Bay and Dallas, road games at New England and Seattle and two games against likely improved Carolina in the NFC South – a record of 10-6 seems reasonable.

But 10 wins would enable the Falcons to win consecutive division titles for the first time in franchise history, if the other projections are realized. The Falcons never won two straight NFC West titles before realignment in 2002, nor have they won the South in consecutive seasons. Only Carolina has done it, with three straight (2013-15).

The South Point’s over/unders in the NFC South this season are: Falcons at 10, Carolina at 9, New Orleans at 8.5 and Tampa Bay at 8.

Worth noting: Las Vegas sportsbooks largely whiffed on division win totals last season. The 2016 over/unders were Carolina 10.5 (under, won 6), Falcons 7.5 (over, won 11), New Orleans 7.5 (under, won 7) and Tampa Bay 7.5 (over, won 9).

I think they’ve got it right this season. The Panthers should be improved, and the Saints and Bucs look like 8-8 teams. Injuries can change things in a hurry.

The projected 10 wins rank tied for second in the NFC with Green Bay, behind only Seattle (10.5), which plays in the weak West. New England has the highest win projected win total at 11.

Here is the complete list of over/unders, arranged by division:

  • NFC East
    Dallas Cowboys 9.5
    New York Giants 9
    Philadelphia Eagles 8.5
    Washington Redskins 7.5
  • NFC North
    Green Bay Packers 10
    Minnesota Vikings 8.5
    Detroit Lions 8
    Chicago Bears 5
  • NFC South
    Atlanta Falcons 10
    Carolina Panthers 9
    New Orleans Saints 8.5
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8
  • NFC West
    Seattle Seahawks 10.5
    Arizona Cardinals 7.5
    Los Angeles Rams 5.5
    San Francisco 49ers 4.5
  • AFC East
    New England Patriots 11
    Miami Dolphins 7.5
    Buffalo Bills 6
    New York Jets 5.5
  • AFC North
    Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5
    Baltimore Ravens 9.5
    Cincinnati Bengals 8.5
    Cleveland Browns 4
  • AFC South
    Tennessee Titans 9.5
    Indianapolis Colts 9
    Houston Texans 8.5
    Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5
  • AFC West
    Oakland Raiders 9.5
    Kansas City Chiefs 9
    Denver Broncos 8.5
    Los Angeles Chargers 7.5


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Reader Comments 0


This is the ATL if a way to lose exists it will be found.


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Schedule is not easy, but last year's was ridiculous.  We win 13 this year.  


Don't think the Falcons can get past Dallas this year to win the NFC title. Last year everything fell into place and we did not take advantage.


11-5 again...We win the division and hopefully start peaking toward the end of the season...crazy last 4 games!


i disagree ...i say 15-1...falcons remain dangerous and defense will be extremely improved...this is the year falcons finally bring Lombardi trophy to Atlanta...they were wrong last year saying falcons would only win 6 games...schedule not   half as tough as last year


injuries are a given, and some years some teams have more.  the falcons can improve, and i think they will be 13-3.  they over achieved some thought last year, but at 11-5 i think they under achieved which makes 2017 a better season.  their curve is on the upswing and there isn't any proof the cowboys regress more as the league has a full season of tape for DC's to study to slow down Dak.  

Alea iacta est
Alea iacta est

Odds say that Schultz's beard is composed of pubes glued to his face. 


Why accept what they say when they said last year that we would finish next to last place in the NFC south and wouldn't win 8 games.  Yeah I rather go with them winning more games with a slightly easier schedule.


I feel like Tampa Bay is more improved and will finish ahead of Carolina.


I think I'll take the 'Under' on Cleveland at 4...


If Falcon history holds - this will be the year they are ravaged by injuries......


I am picking them to be in the Super Bowl, Blow the other team out for 3 quarters of football.  Then let the coaches lose the game in the last 3 minutes.. Oh wait, NVM.


Or maybe the players could have actually played in the fourth quarter, too.