How many games will Braves win? Casino over/under set at only 71.5

Braves interim manager Brian Snitker goes over signals before Tuesday's game against Milwaukee at Turner Field. It was Snitker's first home game since taking over for Fredi Gonzalez. (Scott Cunningham / Getty Images)

Braves manager Brian Snitker doesn’t like the smell of the team’s projected win total this season. (Not really. Well, kinda, sorta.) (Scott Cunningham / Getty Images)

I had the opportunity to attend a cool function at SunTrust Park Thursday during which the Braves announced a series of dedications at the new stadium to Bill Lucas, the team’s late vice president of player personnel, who at the time of his sudden death in 1979 was the highest ranking African-American in major league baseball. (For more on that even, read Tim Tucker’s story linked here.)


While there, I spoke to Braves general manager John Coppolella to get his thoughts on the team this season before it heads to spring training. (The column will be posted later today.) I asked one obvious question and he gave the expected answer. The question: What should expectations should be? The answer: He won’t get into specific numbers or goals, preferring to focus on improvement and the ever-present “process.”

UPDATE: Here’s a link to the full column on MyAJC.com.

Fair enough. Actually, that’s probably wise. But that won’t stop me or anybody else from guessing. I figure in the best-best-best-case scenario — that’s with starting pitching holding up and the 20-10 finish last season not being an aberration — this is at best a .500 team. And, honestly, that’s me being generous. (It happens.)

The wise guys aren’t being so optimistic. The first set of sportsbook over/unders came out Friday and the Braves’ projected win total has been pegged at 71.5. That is not much of a bump up from 68-93. A record of 71-91 or 72-90 places last among National League East teams, next-to-last in the National League and fourth from the bottom in the majors, ahead of only Minnesota (70.5), Oakland (66.5) and San Diego (64.5).

(UPDATE: Last year sportsbooks had a Braves’ over/under of 66.5 wins, so they were pretty close to 68.)

Here are over/unders for all 30 teams from the Atlantis Casino in Reno. Other sportsbooks will have similar totals. I bold-faced the National League East teams. I arranged the entire list into divisions.

  • National League East
  • Washington 90.5
  • New York Mets 89.5
  • Miami 77.5
  • Philadelphia 72.5
  • Braves 71.5
  • National League Central
  • Chicago Cubs: 95.5
  • St. Louis 87.5
  • Pittsburgh 85.5
  • Milwaukee 72.5
  • Cincinnati 73.5
  • National League West
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 91.5
  • San Francisco 87.5
  • Colorado 79.5
  • Arizona 78.5
  • San Diego 64.5
  • American League East
  • Boston 90.5
  • Baltimore 84.5
  • Toronto 86.5
  • New York Yankees 83.5
  • Tampa Bay 75.5
  • American League Central
  • Cleveland: 92.5
  • Detroit 85.5
  • Kansas City 80.5
  • Chicago White Sox 73.5
  • Minnesota 70.5
  • American League West
  • Houston 87.5
  • Texas 86.5
  • Seattle 85.5
  • Los Angeles Angels 76.5
  • Oakland 66.5

So what are your thoughts? Does 71.5 sound high, low or about right? Feel free to vote in the poll above and comment below.

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Reader Comments 0

17 comments
DawginLex
DawginLex

This is an 80 win team. They will sniff the wild card for awhile but fall short. Enough bats to help the pitching that will be better with the infusion of some veteran arms.


The next year will be the year to contend for the division.

Dawgs should win the East in 2017, lose in SECCG. Probably end up 11-3. Falcons should repeat as NFC South champs. Dallas will be hard to overcome to get back to the Super Bowl. 

TideDawg
TideDawg

I think the key to the Braves winning anything is Kemp. Can he play at the level that he did after joining the Braves. He's a year older and he is a declining asset. I think the youth and enthusiasm of the second half Braves last year "infected" Kemp with something he had forgotten(desire). He's going to be a year older and a step slower than last year and he was already a liability on defense. Snitker will have to keep him well rested so he can at least contribute for 110 to 120 games. No doubt the Braves will be improved, no doubt they're capable of winning 80+ games, and there's no doubt that an aging malcontent veteran can spoil the entire team. You may remember that is how the Braves got him because that is what he was before they got him. The Braves traded one malcontent non contributor for some else's problem.....and the Braves won that round. Kemp did well. If Kemp comes into Spring Training out of shape....bad news. If you hear him say " I'll play myself into shape".....bad news, that's the classic aging veteran comment and it's just an excuse for poor performance. I'm hoping he will be a leader. If so, the Braves could be in for a fun year.


Agree or disagree, it doesn't matter, it's only MY opinion and I've been around the bases a few times so it doesn't bother me to be criticized. Opinions mean little and no one remembers them anyway. I'm looking forward to this season.

Gomez Addams
Gomez Addams

Well, I firmly believe the country and the world are headed for a horrible disaster in the coming years, but for some reason, I think the Braves and the Dawgs are trending upwards!  We might be over 83.

TOJacket
TOJacket

@Gomez Addams Tell me about it brother....just about the whole damn town is ready to sheet can the Falcons after winning the NFC ship and you and others still thinking the dawgs are going to win something...classic.

Mutley
Mutley

Team believes in Snitker may do much better than expected.

Mike
Mike

High 80s and a wild card with a 20% chance of rain.

Birdfanforlife
Birdfanforlife

Based on the way last season ended, I would say that we can easily compete for a wild card spot. That is a formidable lineup. Pitching as always will be key. If our starting 4 can stay healthy and consistent we will win 80 plus games easily maybe more. 

ErnestB
ErnestB

I don't think the way the season ended was an aberration.  Kemp has made a huge difference in the middle of the lineup.  I don't think Freeman or INciarte will start as slow as they did in 2016.  Assuming key players stay healthy, the offense should be able to generate at least 4 runs per game (we averaged about 3.2 in 2016).  


As always, pitching will be the key.  If the starters can average giving 6+ innings per start, it will mean the bullpen can remain strong for most of the season.  Short relief is strong however there is a question mark on the middle relievers.


I say we win 78 games, +/- 5 based on how healthy we are.

neutral site
neutral site

With what they have now, I'm seeing 80's. 


Low -to-high is unknown.

Buschleaguer
Buschleaguer

Looks like Reno is using chalk from last years final standings, flip the Astros  and Rangers is about the only change. Predicting how many games a team will win in February is not an exact science. The Braves barring any serious injuries to the starting eight and if they can get  an average of 6 innings out of the starting rotation the 2017 Braves could possibly win 80-85 games.

brushback69
brushback69

no BTC, you should remain asleep like all the other fair weather fans that only want to support a winner with conditions.  Just like all the butthurt Falcon fans that want to get off the bus, GET OFF and stay away...

BTC
BTC

Wake me when they put a winning product on the field...