Why are Falcons favored? Scoring average in last 6 home games: 35.7

*** VISUAL LEDE *** VISUAL LEDE*** October 30, 2016 ATLANTA: — GAME WINNER — Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu catches a touchdown pass from Matt Ryan past Packers defender Jake Ryan for a 33-32 victory in an NFL football game on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016, in Atlanta. Curtis Compton /ccompton@ajc.com

Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu catches a touchdown pass from Matt Ryan past Green Bay defender Jake Ryan for a 33-32 victory at the Georgia Dome on Oct. 30, 2016. (Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com)

The Falcons are favored to beat the Green Bay Packers next week and advance to the Super Bowl.

Surprised? You shouldn’t be.

For my full column looking ahead to next week’s game, click here.

But here are a few things to consider:

— As great as Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is, Matt Ryan has had a better season and so has the Falcons’ offense. Feel free to Google. You’ll find all of the numbers you’ll need.

— When the teams met on Oct. 30, the Falcons won 33-32 when Ryan threw a late-game touchdown pass to Mohamed Sanu. So yes, Rodgers and Green Bay can be beat (even if nobody has managed to do that lately).

— In the five regular-season meetings between the teams with Ryan and Rodgers as the respective quarterbacks, Ryan has won three of the five (although Ryan also lost to the Packers in a 2013 game at Lambeau Field when Green Bay started Matt Flynn).

— Rodgers has some staggering numbers against the Falcons (and almost everybody else): He has completed 129 of 185 passes (69.7 percent) for 1,626 yards, 13 touchdowns, only one interception and a 118 rating. But he won’t have nearly the supporting cast around him that Ryan will. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson is expected to miss the game with broken ribs (although he says he hopes to play). Wide receiver Davante Adams rolled his ankle and left Sunday’s game at Dallas,  but he later returned. (The biggest injury concern for the Falcons’ offense is Julio Jones, who aggravated a toe injury Saturday against Dallas, although coach Dan Quinn said he expects Jones will “be ready to rock” next week.)

— The Falcons have been held under 30 points just once in the last six home games. The only loss in that stretch came 29-28 to Kansas City on the infamous “pick two” thrown by Ryan. The result of the Falcons’ last six home games: 33-32 over Green Bay, 38-19 over Arizona, 29-28 loss to Kansas City, 41-13 over San Francisco, 38-32 over New Orleans and 36-20 over Seattle. That’s a Falcons’ scoring average of 35.7 points in the last six home games.

The Falcons have opened as a 5.5-point favorite at some sports books. Not surprisingly, a high-scoring game is projected, with the over/under set at 60.5 to 61 points (which roughly translates to a 33-28 final score).

So how are you feeling about this match-up?

Again, for the look-ahead column, click here: 

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Reader Comments 0

7 comments
Jse1960
Jse1960

Beasley and Freeney need to have big games, some sacks would be nice but constant pressure is a must. I still can't believe Rodgers didn't fumble on that 4q sack.

TideDawg
TideDawg

I thought Dallas would win....they didn't. I thought Kansas City would win....they didn't. So, I'm picking Greenbay and I hope my record holds true about picking the wrong playoff team. I was 19-9 for the college Bowl games but not so good on the pro playoff teams. 

TideDawg
TideDawg

I can only hope that the Falcons live up to that prediction, -6. They're facing the only QB that can match up with Brady....other than Ryan. The Falcons lost a DE in the game Sat. and defense is not where they can afford to lose a key player. I said before that the Falcons can outscore Green Bay. A lot of those GB defenders are, let's say more mature than the Falcons and they just got through a tough game with the Cowboys. They are going to be pretty beat up and recovery time takes longer for the...more mature. Their pills should wear off by halftime and the Falcons might take them in the second half. 

AMFILMSHD
AMFILMSHD

 never compare a team from 6 years ago, Jeff.  I mean it doesn't get anymore cornball tham that!  compare this team to teams it played this year, and then had to play them again, in the same season.  well, we are 4-0.  one the second time around, the falcons crushed the bucs, and crushed the saints and the panthers(last years nfc champs, btw) and the seaHAGS.  so why are you lacking confidence.  this team will win, and then beat the snot out of the Patriots and all the Matt Ryan haters can suck it.


haha

bowfan
bowfan

and that average would would be higher if MR2 wasn't shutdown in 4qtr v SF, and SEA.  Got to hand it to Quinn.  Sean Payton / Cheatin Pete of SEA would not have shut it down with game in hand.  They'd be running it up for stats.
Hope this Falcons team will open the Benz stadium with a Lombardi in the trophy case.